Airbnb Occupancy and Revenue Forecast Calculator

This Airbnb occupancy and revenue forecast calculator helps short-term rental hosts estimate how many nights they are likely to book in a month and what kind of booking revenue those stays might generate. By combining your expected occupancy rate, average nightly rate, and typical fees, you can quickly compare scenarios and plan for cash flow, cleaning schedules, and pricing strategy.

How the forecast works

The calculator focuses on a single month and uses a small set of inputs:

• Available nights per month – how many nights the property is listed and open for bookings.
• Expected occupancy rate (%) – your best estimate of what percentage of those nights will be booked.
• Average nightly rate ($) – the typical price guests pay per night across the month.
• Cleaning fee per stay ($) – a fixed fee you charge per booking to cover turnover costs.
• Platform fee (% of booking) – the percentage that the booking platform (for example, Airbnb) keeps.

The core idea is that occupancy turns your available nights into booked nights, and then booked nights drive revenue. The model assumes one cleaning fee per booking and treats platform fees as a percentage of the lodging portion of each reservation.

Key formulas

In simplified form, the calculator uses the following relationships:

• Booked nights: B = N × o
• Gross lodging revenue: R = B × p
• Platform fees: F = R × (f / 100)
• Estimated cleaning revenue: C = S × c
• Estimated net booking revenue: I = R − F + C

Where:

• N = available nights in the month
• o = occupancy rate as a decimal (for example, 60% becomes 0.60)
• B = booked nights
• p = average nightly rate
• R = gross lodging revenue (before platform fees and cleaning fees)
• f = platform fee percentage
• F = platform fees retained by the platform
• S = number of stays or bookings (approximated by booked nights divided by typical stay length)
• c = cleaning fee per stay
• I = estimated net booking revenue after platform fees and including cleaning fees

To express the relationship between booked nights and occupancy more formally, you can also write it using MathML:

This simply states that booked nights (B) are equal to the number of available nights (N) multiplied by the occupancy rate (o) expressed as a decimal.

Interpreting your results

The output of the calculator is intended to show an estimated monthly booking revenue, not a full profit and loss statement. Here is how to read the main pieces of information:

• Booked nights – gives a sense of how many nights you will be hosting guests. This drives cleaning workload and variable operating effort.
• Gross revenue – shows the top-line lodging revenue before deductions and before including cleaning fees.
• Estimated platform fees – approximates what the platform keeps from the lodging portion of each booking.
• Cleaning fees collected – represents the turnover charges you collect from guests across all stays.
• Net booking revenue – an estimate of what you receive from bookings after platform fees, including cleaning revenue, but before paying for expenses such as utilities, supplies, mortgage, insurance, or taxes.

Use these numbers as a way to compare different scenarios rather than as a guarantee of what you will earn. Real-world performance will vary with seasonality, competition, guest behavior, and local regulations.

Worked example

Consider a one-bedroom apartment listed on a short-term rental platform with the following assumptions:

• Available nights per month: 30
• Expected occupancy rate: 60%
• Average nightly rate: $150
• Cleaning fee per stay: $50
• Platform fee: 3% of the booking total

Step 1. Booked nights

Occupancy of 60% on 30 available nights gives:

B = 30 × 0.60 = 18 booked nights

Step 2. Gross lodging revenue

R = 18 × $150 = $2,700

Step 3. Platform fees

F = $2,700 × (3 / 100) = $81

Step 4. Cleaning revenue

If you assume an average stay length of 3 nights, 18 booked nights correspond to about 6 stays:

S ≈ 18 / 3 = 6 stays

Cleaning fees collected are then:

C = 6 × $50 = $300

Step 5. Estimated net booking revenue

I = R − F + C = $2,700 − $81 + $300 = $2,919

Under these assumptions, you might expect around 18 booked nights, $2,700 in lodging revenue, and approximately $2,919 in net booking revenue after platform fees but before your other expenses.

Comparing scenarios

One of the most useful ways to work with this calculator is to compare how changes in occupancy or nightly rate affect your estimated revenue. The table below illustrates a few simple scenarios based on 30 available nights in a month, a 3% platform fee, and a $50 cleaning fee per stay assuming an average stay of 3 nights.

In this example, raising prices but accepting lower occupancy leads to slightly lower estimated net revenue than the baseline. On the other hand, modestly reducing nightly rates while increasing occupancy can produce a meaningful revenue bump, while also increasing cleaning workload and guest turnover. The “best” scenario for you will depend on your goals, your market, and how hands-on you want to be.

Using the forecast for decisions

Once you understand how the calculator’s numbers are generated, you can use it to support several types of decisions:

• Pricing strategy: Test different combinations of nightly rate and occupancy rate (for example, aggressive pricing for high season versus discounted rates for low season) to see how much revenue might be at stake.
• Minimum stay requirements: Try longer average stay lengths to reduce cleaning frequency and turnover, then check how that might affect your cleaning fee revenue and workload.
• Seasonal planning: Run separate forecasts for high, shoulder, and low seasons by adjusting available nights, occupancy, and pricing assumptions to reflect each period.
• Cash flow and budgeting: Compare forecast revenue against your fixed costs (mortgage or rent, insurance, HOA dues) and variable costs (utilities, supplies, maintenance) to gauge how comfortable your margins might be.

Because the calculator responds instantly to input changes, it is well-suited for quick “what if” experiments rather than a detailed financial model.

Limitations and assumptions

To keep the tool simple and fast, several simplifying assumptions are baked into the forecast. It is important to understand these so you do not over-interpret the results:

• Single-month snapshot: The calculator looks at one month at a time and assumes occupancy and pricing remain constant throughout that month. It does not model multi-month seasonality or year-round averages on its own.
• Average nightly rate: The model uses a single blended nightly rate. It does not directly account for weekend premiums, special event pricing, or midweek discounts, though you can approximate them by entering a realistic average.
• Simplified bookings and stays: The number of stays is approximated based on booked nights and an implied typical stay length. Real booking patterns will include short gaps, one-night stays, and longer reservations that this simplification does not fully capture.
• One cleaning per stay: The forecast assumes exactly one cleaning per booking, triggered when guests check out. It does not model optional mid-stay cleanings or situations where you might skip a full turnover.
• Platform fee structure: Platform fees are treated as a fixed percentage of the lodging portion of each booking. In practice, platforms may charge both hosts and guests differently, use tiered fees, or vary fees by region or listing type.
• Expenses not included: Operating costs such as utilities, internet, streaming services, consumables, repairs, maintenance, mortgage or rent, property management fees, insurance, and taxes are not part of the calculator outputs.
• Regulatory factors excluded: Local regulations, caps on short-term rental nights, additional taxes, or licensing costs are not reflected in the forecast and can materially change your net results.
• No vacancy friction: The model assumes that any night not booked is simply empty and carries no extra cost or operational complexity, which may not always be true in highly seasonal or event-driven markets.

These assumptions mean that the calculator is best viewed as a high-level revenue estimation tool rather than a full investment underwriting model.

Practical tips for better estimates

To get more value from the forecast, consider the following practices:

• Use real historical data when possible: If you already host, base your occupancy and nightly rate inputs on your actual booking history for comparable months rather than on optimistic guesses.
• Segment by season: Build separate scenarios for different times of year (for example, summer, shoulder season, off-season) and average them to estimate an annual picture.
• Cross-check with local comps: Look at similar listings in your area to gauge realistic occupancy and pricing levels, especially if you are just starting out.
• Stress-test downside scenarios: Run conservative cases with lower occupancy or reduced nightly rates to understand how sensitive your cash flow is to market softness.
• Overlay your own cost structure: After forecasting net booking revenue, subtract your own fixed and variable expenses to arrive at an approximate profit estimate.

Disclaimer

The Airbnb occupancy and revenue forecast calculator provides estimates based on user-supplied inputs and simplified formulas. It does not constitute financial, tax, or legal advice. Actual performance will vary with seasonality, competition, guest reviews, operating practices, and local regulations. Always combine these estimates with your own research, historical data, and professional guidance when making investment or pricing decisions.