What this simulator estimates
Baccarat is a structured comparing game with fixed drawing rules. Small tweaks to table policy—commission size, how banker wins on six are handled, and whether side bets are offered—shift the house edge in subtle ways. This tool runs Monte Carlo simulations on an arbitrary shoe, optionally after specific card ranks are removed, to approximate:
- House edge for banker, player, and tie wagers under several commission models.
- Expected value and volatility of side bets such as Dragon 7 and Panda 8.
- The impact of shoe depletion when certain ranks are missing before the deal.
- Projected bankroll drift, variance, and probability of ruin across a planned series of coups.
Understanding the assumptions
The simulator models a standard eight-deck shoe unless you specify otherwise. Drawing rules follow the common “tableau” used in most casinos. Banker commissions apply to winning banker bets except in the EZ and reduced-commission variants. When you remove cards, the software subtracts them before each coup and reshuffles the remaining shoe. Results therefore mimic a card counter’s mental model rather than continuous shuffling.
Monte Carlo sampling introduces a small amount of statistical noise. Running more iterations tightens confidence intervals but increases processing time. For quick comparisons, 20,000 to 40,000 coups provide a reliable picture; for extremely rare side bets, increase iterations or repeat the simulation a few times and average the outputs.
Commission structures at a glance
On a standard eight-deck shoe the banker hand wins about 45.86% of coups and the player hand wins about 44.62%; the remainder are ties. A 5% commission keeps the banker wager’s house edge around 1.06%. Reduce that commission to 4% and the edge shrinks to roughly 0.6%. Commission-free tables claw back profit by pushing banker wins on certain totals, which raises the effective house edge on both banker and player wagers. Use the dropdowns to see how each policy affects your expected value.
Card removal experiments
Shoe composition matters. Removing low cards such as fours and fives slightly improves the banker’s expectation, while stripping face cards benefits the player. The card removal grid lets you experiment with up to four missing ranks at once. It is not a full-fledged advantage-play engine—real counters track exact ratios and cut cards—but it demonstrates how even modest deviations alter the edge.
Side bet mathematics
Side bets add spice and variance. Dragon 7 pays 40:1 if the banker wins with a three-card seven, an event that occurs in roughly 2.3% of coups. Panda 8 pays 25:1 when the player wins with a three-card eight, which happens about 3.4% of the time. Plugging those probabilities into reveals their steep house edges. The simulator reports both the average gain or loss per unit and the standard deviation so you can gauge bankroll swings before putting chips on the felt.
Bankroll planner outputs
Variance remains considerable despite the modest main-game edge. The bankroll module uses simulated probabilities to estimate average gain or loss per session, standard deviation of outcomes, and the probability of busting your bankroll after a set number of coups. Those results rely on a normal approximation; they are best treated as strategic guidance rather than precise guarantees. If the ruin probability looks high, reduce bet size, cut session length, or walk away after a predetermined number of wins.
Reading the result block
After each simulation the result panel lists expected value, win percentages, standard deviation, and ruin probabilities. The copy button sends those statistics to your clipboard so you can log different rule sets in a spreadsheet. Because calculations run entirely in your browser, you can safely experiment without sharing personal data.
Worked Example
Suppose you run a 40,000-coup simulation with an eight-deck shoe, a 5% commission on banker wins, and standard payouts on side bets. The simulator will usually show the banker bet edging the player bet by a small margin and the tie bet carrying a large house edge. If you switch to a reduced commission of 4%, the banker edge shrinks, but the player bet remains relatively unchanged. This side-by-side comparison illustrates why small policy changes matter even in a game with fixed drawing rules.
Comparison Table
The table below shows illustrative house-edge ranges under common policies. Use it to frame the results you see in the simulator.
| Rule set | Banker edge | Player edge |
|---|---|---|
| Standard 5% commission | ~1.0% | ~1.2% |
| Reduced 4% commission | ~0.6% | ~1.2% |
| Commission-free variants | ~1.2%+ | ~1.4%+ |
Limitations and Assumptions
The simulator assumes independent coups with a full shuffle after each run. Real tables deal a shoe to a cut card, which can slightly shift probabilities within a session. The output also relies on Monte Carlo randomness; repeated runs will vary by small amounts, especially for rare side bets. Use multiple runs or higher iterations for more stable estimates.
Side bet payouts differ by casino and may include special rules, caps, or pushes. Always confirm actual table rules before applying the results. This calculator is an educational tool and does not guarantee outcomes or profitability.
Planning a Session
Use the simulator to think in ranges rather than absolutes. A small edge does not guarantee a profitable session because baccarat results cluster in streaks. If your expected value is near zero but variance is large, the short-term result can still be strongly positive or negative. That is why bankroll sizing matters more than any perceived “hot” or “cold” run. Test different bet sizes and session lengths to see how the ruin probability changes, then choose a plan that fits your tolerance for volatility.
It can also be helpful to compare the main bets to side bets on a per-hour basis. Side bets often have higher payouts but also higher house edges and larger variance. A player might prefer smaller, steadier swings even if the expected loss is similar. The simulator’s standard deviation and win-rate stats let you compare those trade-offs in concrete terms. Use this information to set stop-loss limits or to decide when a side bet is more entertainment than strategy.
If you are experimenting with shoe depletion, remember that real-world dealing patterns and cut-card placement can dilute the effect. Use the tool to see directional changes rather than to predict a specific table outcome.
For longer sessions, compare expected loss per coup with your planned budget. This helps you choose a session length that matches your risk tolerance.
FAQ
Does removing cards guarantee an advantage?
No. Card removal can shift the edge slightly, but the swing is usually small and requires precise tracking. The simulator illustrates direction and magnitude, not a guaranteed winning strategy.
Why are tie bets so unfavorable?
Tie bets pay high odds, but the true tie probability is still low, producing a large house edge. The simulator highlights this by comparing expected value across bet types.
Responsible play reminders
No amount of simulation removes risk. Casinos maintain their advantage through commissions, table minimums, and side bets with steep edges. Use this calculator to explore scenarios, then set personal limits, pace your play, and walk away once you hit predetermined stop-loss or win goals. If gambling stops being fun, take a break and speak with a support organization such as the Responsible Gambling Council or your local helpline.