Why the House Edge Matters
Craps offers an intimidating menu of wagers, from the classic pass line to exotic one-roll propositions. Behind every option sits a precise mathematical expectation. The house edge expresses the casino’s long-run profit margin: a 1.41% edge means the casino keeps $1.41 for every $100 wagered in the long term. Understanding this percentage helps you compare bets objectively and manage your bankroll.
The interactive explorer above reveals the probability of winning, losing, and pushing on popular craps bets. It also converts the abstract edge into a concrete expected loss per 100 wagers at your chosen stake. Use it to verify why low-edge bets such as the pass line are favored by advantage-minded players, while high-edge options like Any 7 rapidly drain chips despite their flashy payouts.
How the Probabilities Are Calculated
Craps is governed by simple dice combinatorics. There are 36 equally likely outcomes on each roll. Multi-roll bets, such as the pass line, require accounting for conditional sequences where a point is established and resolved. For example, the pass line wins immediately on 7 or 11 (8 combinations), loses on 2, 3, or 12 (4 combinations), and otherwise sets a point. Once a point such as 6 is established, the shooter keeps rolling until either the point (5 combinations) or a 7 (6 combinations) appears. The resulting Markov process yields a net expectation of −7/495, or −1.41%.
Proposition bets settle in a single roll, making them easier to evaluate. Any 7 hits on 6 combinations but only pays 4:1, so the expected value is = −0.333…, equivalent to a towering 16.67% house edge. The explorer encapsulates these derivations so you can focus on comparing the numbers without redoing the math each time.
Practical Bankroll Tips
Once you know the edge, you can estimate how long a bankroll might last. Multiply the edge by your average wager count to approximate expected losses. Suppose you make 120 $15 pass line bets during a night. The expected loss is 120 × $15 × 1.41% ≈ $25. Optionally adding odds bets raises variance but does not change the edge on the pass portion. Keeping proposition bets to a minimum preserves bankroll longevity and stretches entertainment value.
While no calculator can guarantee winnings, transparency about odds supports responsible gaming. Use this tool as a study companion alongside session records, allowing you to track how real-life swings compare with the theoretical expectation. Treat positive streaks as variance, set win/loss limits, and remember that the casino advantage is relentless over time.
Comparing Bets Side by Side
The statistics grid displays expected loss per 100 decisions, true odds, and descriptive notes for each bet. Sorting bets mentally by expected loss reveals how dramatically the house advantage grows as you move from pass line to field to proposition wagers. Place 6 and Place 8 hover around a 1.5% edge, whereas Hard 4 and Hard 10 spike above 11%. Seeing these numbers side by side encourages disciplined bet selection tailored to your risk tolerance.
Variance Versus Expectation
House edge is a long-run concept; short sessions are dominated by variance. The explorer’s notes remind you how many winning combinations exist, which hints at volatility. Bets with few winners, like Any 7 or Hardways, exhibit high variance: they lose often but deliver large payouts when they hit. Combining edge information with win probability helps you balance excitement against bankroll preservation.
Using the Tool for Education
If you teach newcomers, have them select a bet and predict the edge before revealing the results. Discuss how casinos tweak payouts slightly below fair odds to create profit. Encourage students to change the wager size and observe how expected loss scales linearly with bet amount. Pair this calculator with the Craps Odds Training Visualizer for a comprehensive lesson on both probability and expectation.
Beyond the Table
Understanding house edge has applications outside craps. Many casino promotions advertise “reduced vig” nights or free odds that temporarily lower the edge. By knowing baseline values, you can quickly assess whether a promotion is meaningful. The mindset of comparing expected loss per decision also transfers to other games like blackjack or baccarat, encouraging a mathematical approach to recreational gambling.
Limitations
The explorer assumes fair dice and standard Las Vegas payouts. Some casinos modify field bet payouts or offer bonus bets not listed here. Always check local rules before relying on the numbers. The calculator also treats each decision independently; combining multiple simultaneous bets requires summing their expectations.