Green Card Priority Date Wait Time Calculator
Key takeaways
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Visas / Month | New Cases / Month | Annual Growth | Wait (months) | Approx. Approval |
|---|
Show month-by-month projection
| Month | Visas Issued | New Cases | Net Change | Backlog Remaining |
|---|
How the wait time model works
Every preference category has a finite allocation of immigrant visas each year. Your place in the queue is defined by your priority date. The calculator treats the queue like a reservoir: we start with the applicants already ahead of you, subtract the visas that can be issued each month, and optionally add any new applicants that jump in front. The result is a transparent estimate of how many months it will take for the backlog to drain.
The core relationship is captured by
with a time-varying net issuance rate
where is the backlog ahead of you, is the current monthly visa issuance, represents any recaptured visas per year, is the annual growth rate in visa throughput, and accounts for new applicants who join the queue ahead of you. When the net rate is positive, the backlog shrinks; if it is negative, the queue grows and you must increase throughput or reduce new filings to make progress.
The form above the calculator lets you:
- Load realistic starting values with presets for common family- and employment-based categories.
- Add expected recaptured or spillover visas so you can model fiscal-year cleanups.
- Account for continuing demand by entering the average number of new cases that appear ahead of you each month.
- Apply an annual growth (or decline) rate to simulate agency surges, fee-funded hiring, or slowdowns.
- Anchor the forecast to a specific Visa Bulletin month, then compare optimistic and pessimistic scenarios side by side.
- Review a month-by-month projection that shows how quickly the backlog drains—or balloons—under your assumptions.
Preset visa category references
Selecting a preset auto-populates the calculator with rounded figures drawn from recent State Department and USCIS reporting. Adjust them for your country of chargeability or updated Visa Bulletin data.
| Category | Typical backlog | Monthly visas | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 – Unmarried adult children of citizens | ≈90,000 | ≈1,600 | Steady demand with heavy queues for Mexico and the Philippines. |
| F2A – Spouses and minor children of residents | ≈18,000 | ≈7,000 | Often current, but retrogressed in 2023; surge years clear quickly. |
| F2B – Unmarried adult children of residents | ≈88,000 | ≈1,800 | Per-country caps can slow high-demand nationals even when worldwide numbers look healthy. |
| F3 – Married children of citizens | ≈120,000 | ≈2,500 | Long queues and frequent retrogression; cross-chargeability can help. |
| F4 – Siblings of citizens | ≈230,000 | ≈2,800 | Historically one of the slowest lines with double-digit year waits. |
| EB2 – Advanced degree professionals | ≈165,000 | ≈3,200 | Employment-based numbers fluctuate as unused visas spill over from family categories. |
| EB3 – Skilled and professional workers | ≈210,000 | ≈3,500 | Includes “other workers”; demand surges when downgrades from EB2 occur. |
Making sense of Visa Bulletin movement
The State Department publishes two critical cutoff charts each month: the Final Action Dates, which determine when visas may actually be issued, and the Dates for Filing, which control when adjustment of status packets can be submitted inside the United States. Retrogression occurs when demand exceeds the statutory limit, forcing the agency to move the cutoff backward to an earlier priority date. When unused visas become available—often near the end of the fiscal year—cutoffs can advance rapidly.
Family categories (F1 through F4) must also respect a 7% per-country cap, so nationals of Mexico or the Philippines can experience waits dramatically longer than the worldwide average. Employment categories juggle worldwide limits and “per-country” reserves that particularly affect Indian and Chinese applicants. Monitoring both charts helps you plan: a Date for Filing that is current lets you file early and obtain work authorization, even if the Final Action Date lags.
Strategy playbook for managing the wait
- Compare scenarios. The built-in table shows how faster visa issuance or new case slowdowns shorten the queue. Use it to test whether advocacy goals—such as recapturing unused visas—meaningfully change your wait.
- Investigate chargeability options. Marrying someone born in a low-demand country, or relying on a parent’s birthplace, can shift you to a quicker queue.
- Evaluate category upgrades. Employment-based applicants can port from EB3 to EB2 or EB1 while retaining the original priority date, instantly reducing the backlog input.
- Watch for legislative or administrative changes. Recapture bills, court settlements, and fee-funded staffing surges can increase monthly throughput—exactly what the growth slider models.
- Keep documentation ready. Police certificates, civil documents, and medical exams can expire; having a calendar keyed to the projected approval date reduces last-minute scrambling.
- Plan financially and emotionally. Long waits affect education choices, job mobility, and family unity. A quantified timeline helps you decide when to pursue temporary visas, remote work, or interim relocations.
Worked example
Imagine an engineer born in India awaiting an EB3 green card. Historical data suggest about 210,000 people are ahead, USCIS issues roughly 3,500 EB3 visas per month, and about 2,100 new applicants join the queue monthly. The company expects 3,000 recaptured visas this fiscal year, equivalent to 250 extra visas per month, and agency hiring may boost throughput by 1.5% annually. Entering those numbers—and selecting the month shown on the latest Visa Bulletin—yields a wait of roughly six years. The optimistic scenario (15% more visas, 20% fewer new cases) drops the timeline toward five years, while the pessimistic view stretches close to seven. The projection table reveals how the backlog shrinks by about 1,650 people in the first month and accelerates as the growth factor compounds.
If the applicant’s priority date is 1 July 2020 and the current Final Action Date is 1 January 2019, the insight list will highlight that they are about 18 months behind the published cutoff and have already waited four years. That context turns an abstract queue into a concrete calendar for career and family decisions.
Planning checklist before your date becomes current
- Recalculate the forecast after each Visa Bulletin release and log the trend in a spreadsheet.
- Prepare Form I-864 or I-944 financial evidence, civil documents, and translations at least six months before the projected approval month.
- Discuss job changes or travel plans with your attorney; moves shortly before final action can trigger additional documentation requests.
- Verify passport validity and vaccination records so medical exams and consular interviews proceed without delay.
- Stay in contact with your sponsor—employers may need to post job offers again if processing spans multiple years.
Frequently asked questions
How often should I rerun the calculator?
Visa Bulletin movements and agency throughput fluctuate monthly. Revisit the projection whenever a new bulletin posts, after any major policy announcement, or whenever you receive updated guidance from your attorney or employer.
What if my queue retrogresses?
Retrogression simply means the net monthly visas dropped below demand. Enter the revised monthly issuance figure, or increase the “new applicants” field to reflect the surge that caused the setback. The calculator will show how long it may take to regain the lost ground.
Why does the backlog sometimes grow in the projection?
If new cases exceed available visas, the queue inflates. The tool keeps modeling month by month so you can see the scale of the problem and estimate how many additional visas—or how large a reduction in demand—would be needed to reverse course.
Does this account for cross-chargeability or category porting?
Those strategies effectively reduce your backlog. If you can claim a different country of chargeability or upgrade to EB1/EB2, adjust the backlog field to the smaller queue you would join and rerun the projection.
How should I choose the “new applicants per month” input?
Review recent Visa Bulletin analysis, USCIS inventory reports, or community trackers for your category. Divide the increase in cases ahead of you by the number of months to approximate the influx. When in doubt, test a range to see how sensitive the wait is.
Is the estimate different for consular processing versus adjustment of status?
The queue mechanics are the same: visas are issued when the Final Action Date passes your priority date. Adjustment applicants may benefit from filing early when the Date for Filing is current, but the green card cannot be approved until a visa number becomes available, which is what the calculator models.
Can I project multiple family members at once?
Derivative spouses and children share the principal applicant’s priority date and count against the same visa quota. Include them in the backlog number if you are estimating the total population ahead of your family unit.