H-1B Lottery Odds & Multiple Registration Strategy Tool

Understanding the H-1B Lottery

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) runs the H-1B lottery each spring when registrations exceed the statutory caps: 65,000 slots for the general cap and 20,000 slots reserved for advanced-degree graduates of U.S. institutions. Historically, employers could submit multiple registrations for the same beneficiary, increasing the odds of selection but fueling abuse. For fiscal year 2025, USCIS introduced beneficiary-centric rules: the lottery now selects unique beneficiaries rather than registrations, although candidates may still leverage multiple job offers to choose among employers after selection.

This tool estimates selection probabilities under both the old and new frameworks. It uses publicly reported registration counts and the two-step selection process: first, USCIS selects enough beneficiaries to fill the 65,000 general cap, including advanced-degree candidates; next, it selects from remaining advanced-degree candidates to fill 20,000 additional slots. While the official process includes buffers to account for petition denials, our model assumes the caps are filled exactly, providing a conservative estimate of odds.

How the Calculator Works

You supply the total number of registrations in the general pool and the subset with advanced degrees. USCIS typically releases these figures after the registration window closes. Enter the number of employers willing to sponsor you; under the 2025 rules, this number reflects how many bona fide job offers you hold, not duplicate registrations. Choose whether to model the new beneficiary-centric rules or the prior regime, and adjust cap numbers if Congress changes them.

The calculator computes the probability of selection for one registration in each step. For the general lottery, the chance equals cap slots divided by the total general pool. For advanced- degree candidates, we add the probability of being selected in the general lottery plus the probability of missing the general cap but winning the advanced-degree draw. Multiple employers increase odds by treating each independent job offer as an additional opportunity. Under the new rules, multiple job offers do not multiply the lottery entry itself, but they improve flexibility post-selection; we still calculate the theoretical odds as if each offer represents an independent entry to illustrate the benefit under the legacy system and the ceiling imposed by the new system.

Interpreting Output

The result statement provides three values: odds with a single employer, odds with your chosen number of employers under the selected rules, and the difference compared to the legacy system. If the new rules are enabled, the tool caps the probability at the single-entry odds because the lottery no longer counts multiple registrations separately. The narrative explains the implication for job seekers—namely, that diversifying job offers still matters (it creates backup sponsors) but no longer boosts the raw lottery probability.

We also report estimated odds for non-advanced-degree candidates so employers can compare cohorts. These figures help plan recruitment strategies, especially for consulting firms and tech companies balancing domestic hiring with international talent needs.

Example

Suppose USCIS receives 474,000 total registrations, including 192,000 advanced-degree entries. General-cap odds equal 65,000 / 474,000 ≈ 13.7%. Advanced-degree candidates have a 13.7% chance in the general lottery plus a second chance for the remaining slots: 20,000 / (192,000 - 65,000 * 192,000 / 474,000) ≈ 19.5%. Combined, advanced-degree odds reach roughly 31.6%. Under the legacy rules, a candidate with three employers would have 1 - (1 - 0.316)^3 ≈ 69.4% odds. Under the new beneficiary rules, multiple employers do not raise the lottery selection probability; the candidate remains at 31.6% but gains choice of employer if selected.

Planning Tips

The explanation section describes strategies such as diversifying job offers across industries, exploring cap-exempt employers (universities, non-profits, research institutions), and preparing alternative visas (O-1, L-1, TN) if lottery odds are low. Employers can use the calculator to estimate how many registrations they need to sponsor to achieve a target number of approvals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does USCIS always use these exact caps? USCIS selects more beneficiaries than the statutory caps to account for denials. Our model uses the nominal caps; adjust the inputs upward if you want to simulate the buffer.

Are multiple job offers still valuable under the new rules? Yes. While they no longer boost selection probability, they provide backup employers in case one petition falls through or you prefer a different offer after selection.

How do cap-exempt employers fit in? Cap-exempt organizations can file H-1B petitions year-round without the lottery. Set the pool inputs to zero if you are exclusively targeting cap-exempt roles.

Can I model future registration growth? Increase the general pool input to reflect anticipated demand. The tool will recalculate odds automatically.

What if Congress raises the cap? Update the cap fields to see how higher limits improve odds. This can inform advocacy discussions.