H-1B Visa Lottery Odds Calculator

Understanding H-1B Visa Lottery Mechanics

The Problem

The H-1B visa program is among the most competitive immigration pathways in the United States. With annual demand far exceeding available visas, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) uses a lottery system to allocate the 85,000 available positions (65,000 general cap plus 20,000 advanced degree exemption). In recent years, the lottery has attracted over 200,000 applications, making selection highly competitive. Understanding your actual odds is crucial for career planning, timeline expectations, and backup strategy development.

How the H-1B Lottery Works

The lottery system operates in two stages when demand exceeds supply:

1. First Lottery: All registered petitions are entered into the first random selection. USCIS selects enough petitions to fill approximately 85% of available positions.
2. Supplemental Lottery: Unselected petitions from the first lottery are entered into a second drawing to fill remaining positions.

The pool is divided into two categories:

• General Allocation (Regular Cap): 65,000 positions for applicants with bachelor's degrees and below
• Advanced Degree Exemption: 20,000 positions reserved for applicants with master's degrees or higher from U.S. institutions

The Mathematics

First lottery selection rate:

Combined probability (accounting for supplemental lottery for those not selected initially):

Worked Example

Suppose you have a master's degree from a U.S. university, and 206,000 total H-1B applications are filed, with an estimated 90,000 in the advanced degree category:

• Cap Limit: 20,000 positions
• First Lottery draws: 0.85 × 20,000 = 17,000 positions
• First Lottery Selection Rate: 17,000 ÷ 90,000 = 18.89%
• If not selected in first (81.11% probability), you enter supplemental lottery
• Supplemental pool: approximately 73,000 unselected applications
• Supplemental positions: 20,000 − 17,000 = 3,000
• Supplemental Selection Rate: 3,000 ÷ 73,000 = 4.11%
• Probability of supplemental selection if not in first: 0.8111 × 0.0411 = 3.33%
• Combined probability: 0.1889 + 0.0333 = 22.22%
• Odds: 1 in 4.5 chance of selection

Historical Context and Trends

Understanding H-1B Lottery Odds and Strategic Implications

With historical odds around 15-25% for advanced degree holders and 6-16% for bachelor's degree applicants, the H-1B visa has become increasingly a lottery game rather than a meritocratic pathway. The reality is stark: even highly qualified engineers and scientists have a 75% chance of rejection. This fundamental unpredictability has transformed visa strategy from "just apply for H-1B" to "develop multiple immigration pathways simultaneously." Smart visa applicants don't rely solely on H-1B selection; they pursue parallel strategies: H-1B application, L-1 visa exploration (if multinational employer available), Green Card application initiation, and alternative visa research (O-1 for extraordinary ability, TN for Canadians/Mexicans). The time to diversify is before the H-1B rejection arrives.

Advanced Degree Premium: Master's Advantage

The advanced degree exemption offers roughly 2x better odds (32% vs. 15% for bachelor's). This creates a strategic question: is pursuing a U.S. master's degree worth it? For international students, a master's degree costs $40K-80K and takes 2 years, but improves H-1B odds from ~15% to ~32%. The math: if you have a 15% base H-1B chance and can boost that to 32%, you're essentially doubling your visa selection probability. However, this assumes you're not already in the U.S. working. If you have 5+ years of international work experience and land a good job with H-1B sponsorship, pursuing a master's delays your immigration and adds $60K+ cost. The decision is personal: students early in careers might pursue master's; experienced professionals should maximize H-1B odds with current credentials and pursue Green Card if H-1B fails.

The Advanced Degree Bottleneck

Interestingly, adding the advanced degree exemption (20,000 positions) hasn't significantly improved overall H-1B odds because application volume to the advanced degree category has grown proportionally. In 2020, the advanced degree pool had ~90,000 applications; by 2024, estimates suggest similar-sized pools. Adding more positions would immediately attract more applicants until odds equilibrate. This is an economic principle: if H-1B odds improve, more people apply, eroding the advantage. The only way to substantially improve odds is to either (1) increase visa cap significantly (political unlikely), or (2) reduce application volume (via policy change like employer sponsorship requirements). Expecting H-1B odds to improve naturally is unlikely.

Timing and Strategic Filing

The H-1B filing window (typically April 1-30) is compressed. Submitting applications on day 1 vs. day 30 doesn't improve odds—the lottery is random regardless of filing date. However, timing relative to employment decisions matters. If you're in a job search during March, accepting a job offer that includes H-1B sponsorship means your application enters the lottery pool. If you wait until June to accept, you've missed the entire fiscal year window and must wait until next year. For international workers, this means strategic job hunting must align with H-1B filing season or you lose 12+ months. Planning ahead is critical: international candidates should target job searches 2-3 months before H-1B filing deadline.

Employer Sponsorship and Filing Volume

Large tech companies (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Meta) collectively file thousands of H-1B applications. While individual odds remain low, working for companies filing many applications increases absolute probability (same odds but more attempts). A worker at a company filing 1,000 H-1B applications has better odds than a worker at a company filing 10 applications, not because their individual probability changes but because the company is covering more lottery positions. Some companies have internal waiting lists and file for multiple employees, increasing individual selection probability if the company files enough to hit multiple successful selections. This is invisible optimization—you don't know if your employer is filing strategically until after lottery results.

Beyond H-1B: Alternative Visa Strategies

The H-1B lottery's unreliability has driven innovation in visa strategies. Some alternatives worth exploring: L-1 visa (for multinational companies, bypasses lottery), O-1 visa (for those with extraordinary ability in their field, no numerical limit), TN visa (immediate for Canadians/Mexicans through USMCA), Green Card applications (EB-2 for advanced degree holders, EB-3 for skilled workers, both employer-sponsored). Additionally, some international professionals pursue Canadian or UK work visas first, gaining North American experience, then applying for U.S. Green Card from a stronger position. The key insight: don't over-rely on H-1B. Use the application window but simultaneously explore alternatives.

Limitations and Assumptions

• Pool Distribution Assumption: This calculator assumes applications are distributed proportionally between general and advanced degree categories. Actual distribution may vary based on filing patterns.
• Lottery Mechanics Changes: USCIS may change lottery procedures. Recent years have implemented cap lottery registration before detailed petition filing to reduce frivolous registrations.
• No Duplicate Prevention: The actual lottery may have deduplication processes we cannot account for without access to USCIS systems.
• Application Quality: This assumes all applications have equal validity. Rejected applications are excluded from lottery pools, but timing of discovery affects calculations.
• Multiple Submissions: If you or your employer file multiple registrations, each has independent odds, increasing overall selection probability.
• Future Legislative Changes: Congress may increase visa allocations, which would dramatically improve odds. Alternatively, new restrictions could reduce available positions.