Design heat load | |
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Radiator output at rating | |
Reference temperature difference | |
Heat pump max supply | |
Heat delivered at max supply | |
Load coverage | |
Supply needed to meet load |
Converting a boiler-fed hydronic system to a low-temperature heat pump is one of the fastest routes to decarbonizing an existing home, but poorly matched emitters can sabotage comfort and efficiency. Radiators sized for 80 °C supply water may deliver only a fraction of their design output at 50 °C, forcing the heat pump to cycle constantly or rely on expensive backup heaters. This calculator models how much heat your existing radiators can deliver when supplied by a modern air-to-water or ground-source heat pump. By comparing the calculated heat output against the design load, you can plan whether to resize emitters, add fan-assisted convectors, or strategically insulate before committing to equipment purchases.
Many homeowners ask whether upgrading to a heat pump is as simple as swapping the heat source. In reality, the success of a retrofit depends on the entire heat delivery chain. Radiators follow a nonlinear relationship between water temperature and heat output, described by an exponent that varies by construction. Steel panel radiators often have an exponent around 1.3, while cast iron radiators are closer to 1.1. That means a modest drop in temperature can slash delivered heat. Our tool accounts for that exponent, the supply and return temperatures used in the manufacturer rating, and the lower supply temperature available from the heat pump. The result is a realistic view of available capacity, long before you drain the system.
Radiator performance data is usually stated for a known reference such as 75 °C supply, 65 °C return, and 20 °C room temperature. The mean water temperature is the average of supply and return. The temperature difference between the mean water temperature and the room is what actually drives heat transfer. If the mean temperature drops by half, the delivered heat does not fall by half—it falls according to a power law. We express this relationship in MathML as:
The calculator computes the reference temperature difference ΔTref from your rated supply, rated return, and room temperature. It then computes the achievable temperature difference at the heat pump’s maximum supply temperature, assuming a user-defined system drop between supply and return. By applying the exponent n, the tool estimates delivered heat at that lower temperature. Finally, it uses a numerical solver to determine the supply temperature required to meet the full design load. If even 95 °C water cannot satisfy the load, the calculator highlights that the existing emitters are undersized for the building, even with a boiler.
Imagine a 1950s home with a design load of 10 kW. The existing panel radiators are rated at 12 kW with 75/65/21 °C water. You plan to install an air-to-water heat pump that can deliver 55 °C on the coldest day, and you expect a 10 °C temperature drop between supply and return. Plugging these values into the calculator shows that the reference temperature difference is 44 °C. At 55 °C supply, the mean water temperature is 50 °C, so the new temperature difference is 29 °C. Raising 29/44 to the power of 1.3 yields roughly 0.62. Multiplying by the rated 12 kW gives 7.4 kW, covering only 74% of the load. The solver indicates that you would need about 63 °C supply to hit the 10 kW target. With that knowledge, you can decide whether to upgrade certain radiators, lower the design load by insulating the attic, or select a high-temperature heat pump.
Supply (°C) | Return (°C) | Mean water (°C) | Load coverage | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
50 | 40 | 45 | 59% | Undersized for design day |
55 | 45 | 50 | 74% | Needs emitter upgrade or zoning |
60 | 50 | 55 | 89% | Borderline performance |
65 | 55 | 60 | 105% | Comfortable even in cold snaps |
The table illustrates how supply temperature interacts with radiator sizing. Because load coverage scales nonlinearly, a few extra degrees can unlock a significant margin. Conversely, a 5 °C reduction can plunge coverage below 70%, emphasizing the importance of insulation improvements that shrink the design load. Pairing this calculator with the seasonal heat pump balance point calculator helps you evaluate how often the system will need those peak temperatures, while the heat pump operating cost estimator shows the budget impact of extended runtimes.
The result panel returns three critical metrics: heat delivered at the heat pump’s maximum supply temperature, percentage of the design load covered, and the supply temperature required to meet 100% of the load. If load coverage exceeds 100%, your radiators can easily handle lower temperatures, giving room to modulate the heat pump for efficiency. When coverage is between 80% and 100%, small upgrades—such as adding thermostatic radiator valves, boosting flow rates, or improving envelope performance—can bridge the gap. Coverage below 80% signals that you should either upsize emitters or plan for a hybrid system where the existing boiler handles the coldest days.
The calculator assumes a fixed temperature drop between supply and return, which may vary with flow rate and radiator design. Fan-assisted convectors, for example, maintain a smaller drop by increasing airflow. The exponent input captures the radiator’s specific performance curve, but using the wrong value will skew results. If you do not know the exponent, consult manufacturer data or start with 1.3 for flat panels and 1.1 for column radiators, then check the sensitivity of the result. We also assume steady-state conditions without solar gains or internal loads. Real buildings experience dynamic gains that reduce the effective design load, especially during daytime.
Once you know how far your existing radiators can stretch, you can stage upgrades intelligently. Homes that fall short by 20% might prioritize attic insulation or draft sealing before investing in high-temperature heat pumps. If certain rooms are marginal, replacing only those radiators with oversized units or low-temperature fan coils can bring the whole system within range. The output also informs control strategies—if you can meet the design load with 60 °C supply, you may schedule weather-compensated curves that cap the heat pump at 55 °C for most of the winter, reserving higher temperatures for rare cold snaps.
Combine this analysis with thermal load modeling tools to validate your design load estimate. Oversized boilers often mask smaller true loads, and recalculated Manual J values may reveal that your existing radiators already have ample capacity. You can also experiment with lower system temperature drops—if your circulators can support higher flow, reducing the drop from 10 °C to 7 °C raises the mean water temperature and increases delivered heat. Similarly, if you add buffer tanks or hydraulic separators, be mindful that additional components can introduce temperature losses not captured here.
What if my heat pump can reach 70 °C? High-temperature heat pumps exist, but their efficiency declines as supply temperature rises. Use the calculator to confirm that you only need those higher temperatures during extreme weather, then compare operating costs with the heat pump carbon abatement calculator to judge whether frequent high-temperature operation erodes environmental gains.
Do I need to replace every radiator? Not necessarily. The solver highlights whether a few critical rooms fall short. You might add fan-assisted convectors in cold bedrooms while keeping the rest of the system intact. Similarly, supplementing with underfloor heating in main living areas spreads the load and allows the radiators to run cooler.
How accurate is the exponent? Manufacturers publish correction factors for different ΔT values. If you have access to a detailed chart, you can back-calculate the exponent by fitting a power curve. The calculator lets you input that exponent so your retrofit plan matches real-world performance. You can also validate field performance after installation by logging supply and return temperatures and comparing measured output to predictions.
As you map your retrofit, remember to consult qualified HVAC engineers for pressure drops, pump sizing, and refrigerant management. This calculator gives you a head start on the thermal math, helping you prioritize budgets and set realistic expectations before detailed design begins.